Ukip hasn’t gone away, you know

At Spectator blogs

Back in 2011 I suggested that Ukip would top the 2014 euro poll and was given odds of 66/1 by Paddy Power, but I chickened out of putting money on it; I also ducked out of a bet offered by a leading political pollster that the Kippers would overtake the Lib Dems. I come from an austere Irish Catholic background and have always taken the view that gambling is a waste of good drinking money.

So let me suggest now that, whatever happens from here on in, Ukip will not fall below 10 per cent and will remain roughly where they are; even if Farage goes totally loopy and declares himself a god-emperor, they will stay a double-digit party. Furthermore Corbyn’s economic populism, whether it’s the ‘people’s quantitative easing’ or ‘people’s railways’, won’t make any difference. And the euro referendum won’t damage them either way, and defeat might even help.

Read it all there.

Comments so far

  1. The open borders globalists in the Tory party really ought to think through what they are doing. They could yet find themselves producing more Labour voters. It has occurred to some in the Labour party…

    http://quarterly.demos.co.uk/article/issue-3/537/

    I quit Labour precisely because I was disgusted at how the leading lights of London Labour were *openly* in favour of abandoning their old ‘white’ working class base.

    Paul Mason, a guy I quite like, was celebrating Jeremy Corbyn’s ”young, diverse, metropolitan” supporters the other day too. Paul is from Leigh, an old mining town near Manchester… he knows full well how globalisation and mass immigration have hit his old haunts and the people who live there but he’s committed to his new tribe.

    Unfortunately, it turns out that:
    – the young are increasingly selfish and care little for the environment
    – diversity undermines progressive ends
    and the metropolis is the opposite of what it proclaims itself to be

    http://www.monbiot.com/2015/09/24/wiping-the-world-clean/ (see second half)

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-24641185

    If the Tories were really prepared to embrace a ‘blue-collar’ agenda, they could kill Labour but they won’t. They are going to continue to make life harder for the bottom 30% and to loot the public realm on behalf of the City.

    And as such – the Spectator is quite wrong on this – Labour will still be in with a shout come 2020 because Osbourne is going to get swamped by the global downturn and resulting private debt crisis. I spoke to Graham Brady, the Chair of the 1922, about this and there was fear in his eyes.

  2. Oh, one more thing: JC won’t be leader come 2020. He’ll step down relatively soon. My mentor knows him very well – they worked together in Islington for years. He wants to make the party more democratic and then step aside to let a proper leader / organiser take over.

    I’m not a fan of the Unite / metropolitan left agenda but the Spectator’s crowing is entirely misplaced – of that I am certain.

What do you think?

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