A battle on two fronts

The crown is lying in the gutter for anyone wishing to pick it up

The image of champagne bottles being opened outside a prison on the day that 2,000 criminals were released early seems like something that could appear in political communication masterclasses. Whether one think it’s morally correct, or necessary, from a comms point of view it seems suicidal. Many of those released have committed horrifically violent offences, including domestic abusers. Every one of the crimes committed by the 4,000 felons released early in these coming weeks is going to be a news story, and the laws of probability – and reoffending rates – suggest that many more crimes will result.

Although blame for the prison service’s underfunding lies very much with the last government, the new regime’s decision to free so many criminals – in part for ideological reasons – is going to haunt them. 

But then the new government seems strangely bad at politics; on the day of the first prisoner releases, they voted to end winter fuel allowance for pensioners. Government ministers in interviews look quite scared, or clueless, or have no answers to the problems facing us. Labour has no clear narrative that things are under control and there is hope on the horizon, and their message that things will only get worse seems unwise when people feel that they have already endured enough hardship since 2007. 

Their economic policies don’t give rise to optimism, whether it’s industry or energy. The housing targets are in the wrong areas. On academic freedom they are already proving more authoritarian than even pessimists predicted. The abandonment of the Rwanda plan, when numbers continue to be worryingly high and other European countries are going ahead with third country agreements, suggests they have no solution to this existential crisis. The migrant crisis continues to fuel the housing crisis, and even newcomers must now compete with prisoners for scarce social housing.

Labour have seen a 15-point drop in popularity, their poll numbers are terrible and Starmer’s personal popularity has massively fallen. The new government already has levels of unpopularity which predecessors took years to achieve. Footage of Starmer and other Labour MPs greeting the public invariably shows them being booed.

It feels very much like 1974, a new government with old ideas and an air of exhaustion, amid a general feeling that the country is falling apart. Like with Wilson’s regime, the new government is already riven by internal feuding.

With Starmer’s regime enjoying net approval ratings of -36, it feels like a tremendous opportunity for someone to find the crown in the gutter and pick it up. I’m just not entirely sure it will be the Tory Party, once this leadership contest is over.

The latest More in Common polling shows Labour down six points since the election, to 29%, yet the Tories are unchanged on 25%. The next election provides a huge opportunity for a third party to break through, and while I’m not one for making predictions, I feel that it wouldn’t be reckless to bet that, at some point in this Parliament, at least one poll will place Reform as the most popular party in Britain. And no, I’m not going to put money on it.