The case for a Global Sanctuary City

What if the Syrians can’t return home?

Syria is rid of Assad, and already a number European countries have announced a pause on asylum claims from that tragic country. Some parties have even suggested that refugees start heading back, and indeed many Syrians in Turkey seem to be taking to their cars to make the journey home.

I think that it would be premature to start talking of returning the Syrians; indeed, one reason that European nations are suspending Syrian asylum claims is not because the country is now safe and entering a glorious new era, but out of a fear that the fall of the regime will provoke a fresh wave of migrants, in particular of minorities.

We have no idea how safe the country will be in the coming months or years, and what its rebranded Islamist rulers have planned. So far, its leader has been making conciliatory gestures towards minorities, and even proclaimed that ‘diversity is our strength’ - but their history and pedigree is hardly reassuring. I suspect that what violent Salafists mean by ‘diversity’ might be different to how HR departments understand it.

According to United Nations reports, at least 4.9 million Syrians are living in neighbouring countries and another 1.3 million in Europe, mostly in Germany (Britain has around 30,000). Turkey has taken in huge numbers, as has Jordan, although Lebanon has come under the most extreme strain. In none of these countries are the natives exactly happy about this burden, but that’s what you do (Syria itself had taken many refugees in the past, from Armenians fleeing the genocide to 1.5 million Iraqis escaping their civil war).

On this issue, like many people, I have two irreconcilable hopes: on the one hand, the 1951 UN Refugee Convention is now completely untenable, designed for a different age, and the number of people willing to migrate would lead to civil unrest across Europe if allowed. Even if we don’t get to that stage, the long-term outcomes of migrant groups in Europe fleeing from conflict and disorder are not good, and carry a substantial social and economic cost.