The Wrong Side of History newsletter #53

Major developments in the imperial capital

Good morning, and welcome to all new subscribers. I’m writing from the province of Achaia, formerly the great sea-power of Athens, where we follow with bated breath developments from the imperial capital of Rome. We’re especially interested in this exciting-sounding new general, Gaius Julius Caesar – he sounds like he’s really going to shake things up!

The founders of the United States were obsessed with the Roman Empire, and their Caesarean nightmare seems quite lucid at the moment. Since the last newsletter, and events in Pennsylvania, I have written about famous failed assassination attempts and why American journalists insist they’re heading for fascism, when the 19th century fear of Caesarism feels much more apt. I will post at some point about American comparisons with Rome, which is obviously an extensive subject (as a general rule, Americans think about the fall of the Republic, while Europeans about the fall of the Empire).

In Britain the summer holidays have begun and the neighbourhood suddenly feels a lot emptier. My youngest has just finished primary school, which has left us with a happy-sad feeling, and a couple of weeks ago I was chatting to another parent who noted that the catchment area of a local secondary had expanded a fair bit. That got me thinking about Paul Morland’s book about the demographic crisis, and when I looked up catchment area information in our borough and others I noticed that they really are expanding everywhere as the number of children declines.

In part two I looked at attempts by various countries to raise fertility, none of which seem to work. Only Israelis – and even secular Israelis – have above replacement levels among OECD countries. The two articles have probably provoked the angriest comments of any I’ve written, as I suppose is to be expected - but please keep it civil in the comments.

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Elsewhere, Will Solfiac on Denmark’s immigration policy.

Liberal democracy requires that people behave politically as individuals within a single larger community and accept political defeat with good grace, not as members of tribal communities for whom inhabiting a parallel society or violent insurrection is preferable to ‘foreign rule’.

Mass, unselective immigration into liberal democracies poses a grave threat to their cohesive national identities and political stability. Most of the Western world has seen the rise of right-wing populism this century because Western governments have failed to control immigration to the satisfaction of their electorates, and given demographic and political trends there is no sign that the problem is going to go away.

He quotes the piece I wrote about Danish Exceptionalism on the issue.

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Good piece by Sam Bowman on why London should be bigger and better.

Also, here, a nice thread on London’s Docklands. I love the view from Greenwich Park, although I think that London should have architectural zones, as I believe they do in some French cities, rather than random high-rises in areas full of Victorian or Georgian terraces.

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Christopher Caldwell on the unravelling of the Biden coalition. Caldwell was also interviewed by the Spectator podcast, which is well worth a watch. I mean to write a ‘15 years on’ piece about his Reflections on the Revolution in Europe at some point, but, as with a lot of things, I’m delayed.

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Ian Ward on the seven thinkers who’ve influenced JD Vance.

As Vance later wrote of Thiel’s vision, “He saw these two trends — elite professionals trapped in hyper-competitive jobs, and the technological stagnation of society — as connected. If technological innovation were actually driving real prosperity, our elites wouldn’t feel increasingly competitive with one another over a dwindling number of prestigious outcomes.”

A French-born philosopher and Catholic literary critic, Girard taught for several decades at Stanford University — where his acolytes included Peter Thiel. Thiel, in turn, introduced Girard’s ideas to his own protégé. Vance has said that he was particularly influenced by Girard’s idea of “mimetic rivalry” — the idea that humans want certain things because they see other people wanting those same things — and his related idea of the “scapegoat myth”: That this competition for shared goals and objects leads to social and political conflict, which most societies ultimately resolve by committing an act of violence against a perceived outsider. To Girard, early Christians were the first group to escape this cycle of violence because they scapegoated one of their own — Jesus Christ — rather than an outsider.'

On a related note, ‘This study of 700,000 teens found that having a classmate diagnosed with a mental disorder was associated with a 5% increased risk of also being diagnosed with a mental disorder.’ Human behaviour is contagious, one of the least appreciated elements of social theory.

Richard Hanania also did an interesting post on the Tech Right.

Tyler Cowen on vibe shifts in American politics. Is this still happening, or has Biden’s retirement changed things? I don’t know.

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This is a powerful and disturbing read: A Partial Explanation of Zoomer Girl Derangement

As you come of age, you must confront a paradox: your greatest source of power, your desirability, is your greatest source of vulnerability. Girls react to this paradox in various ways; some girls retreat into themselves, despising the male gaze, others embrace it, perhaps out of insecurity, perhaps out of ambition. Whatever the case may be, as you come of age, you come to terms with it. You accept your desirability; but you do not let it define you; you pursue other things, hobbies, interests, passions. You do not resent the male gaze, but you do not hunger for it either; this is the healthiest way to come to terms with your newfound status as “sex-object.”

Sounds bleak, if I’m honest.

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James Marriott on opera, art and snobbery.

An ominous sign can be glimpsed in a superb forthcoming book about the British elite by Aaron Reeves and Sam Friedman, Born to Rule. In it they track the pseudo-egalitarian drift of the modern establishment. In a study of the recreations listed in Who’s Who they note the decline of “highbrow” pursuits like classical music and the rise of ostentatiously ordinary activities like “drinking beer” and “television”. Those in power have never been keener to signal their relatable, meritocratic credentials.

Snobbery and elitism are easily despised, but they are also propulsive forces that inspire people to seek out new and better cultural experiences. Reading the memoirs of the philosopher and Labour MP Bryan Magee, who grew up in poverty in the East End of London and went on to publish books about Wagner, it is hard to avoid the reflection that in his teens the attraction of culture was linked to the glamour of social mobility as well as to aesthetic pleasure. I suspect he owed one of the passions of his life to an emotion that could fairly be labelled snobbery. The association of the arts with “lavishness, grandeur and exclusiveness” is an important part of their appeal — at least initially. Paradoxically, elitism is often the best strategy for diversity and inclusion.

Humans will always be motivated by snobbery, and a desire to appear better than their fellow humans – the aim should be to channel those urges towards constructive activities that promote excellence, rather than in having often socially-destructive political opinions that signal university education.

My main objection to funding the BBC, on pain of imprisonment, is not just because it has a hectoring tone and ideological bias, although there is that. When I start the car engine it automatically turns on Radio 4, which I’m too much of a technophobe to work out how to stop, and the last time this happened a couple of weeks back there was an earnest conversation about racism in Scottish cricket. This is what living in a theocracy must feel like – a constant obsession with immorality. But my main objection is that it is so self-consciously lowbrow, when it should be promoting education and enlightenment, and it’s only going to get worse when the 12-year-olds take over.

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Matthew Crawford on declining civility:

In July 2020, the French establishment was in a fuss after interior minister Gérald Darmanin used the term ensauvagement to describe how public space in France was becoming less civilised. Louis Betty, an American scholar of contemporary French thought, explains that the term was coined by writer Laurent Obertone some years earlier. The cause of ensavagement, according to Obertone, is “the domestication of the French public, especially of its elite”, writes Betty. To be domesticated is to be over-socialised. And, conversely, agressive nuisance is, “in Obertone’s telling… a phenomenon of under-socialisation” wherein the “under-socialised”, who are “incapable of controlling their aggressive impulses”, are “abetted by an over-socialised overclass” for whom violence is just “an abstraction”. In fact, the over-socialised class “compete with each other to show who can be the most lenient toward the under-socialised”. This “moral competition”, responsible for the judicial system’s unwillingness to punish criminals, is “a cause of further ensavagement”.

The obvious British example is the exciting new trend for people playing music and telephone calls on speaker phone while on public transport, which has become really pronounced since 2020.

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The Pimlico Journal on the drugs economy. My general impression is that there is a slight vibe shift against legalised and decriminalised drugs across many western countries, because the social harms are proving too obvious, but that Britain hasn’t quite caught up. ‘Prohibition doesn’t work’ is also a bit of a midwit idea - making things more easily available and not subject to restrictions or punishments clearly leads to more people doing them.

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Andrew Doyle on how dictionaries are captured by activists. Remember how in 2020 one dictionary just changed the definition of racism overnight. What a year that was - here’s a thread on some of the people unfairly sacked during that time.

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Elsewhere….

‘As we stand on the brink of this new frontier, I'm reminded of a quote from Arthur C. Clarke: "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic." With bridge recombination, we're not just editing the genome anymore. We're writing it. And that, my friends, is pretty close to magic.’

Nice new gene editing developments.

Also, there’s now a twice-yearly injectable antiviral with an efficacy of 96–100% in preventing HIV.

And researchers have identified the cause of lupus, and along with that possible treatments.

I’m reminded why I’m a cultural pessimist/techno-optimist.

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Interesting proposal for a new town in England. My only suggestion is that we get the King to design it.

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‘In 2013, a teenager from the UK and his friends were drinking at his grandparents' Bruno’s Bar in Gibraltar. After a few beers, they decided to open a football club. Named after the bar and inspired by their love for Newcastle, F.C. Bruno’s Magpies was formed. Last Thursday, they eliminated Derry City FC in the Conference League and will face Copenhagen in the 2nd Qualifying Round.’

There also used to be a Geordie football club in north London. Home colours were black and white stripes, away colours red and white to satisfy the Mackems.

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‘How did the McCarthyist Hollywood Blacklist affect American Minds? Accusations of Communism had a chilling effect on cinema, leading to heightened conservatism, and more votes for Republicans.’

The effect of McCarthyism wasn’t just to root out communists, but to make more moderate left-wing opinions beyond the pale. The same is obviously true of attempts to root out ‘fascism’, the extreme right and immoral behaviour like racism and homophobia, which helps to make more moderate conservative opinion suspect. Cancel culture works!

Related, David Rozado on mentions of far-right and far-left in American newspapers.

Also, public displays of offensive political products are signs of a psychopath. That is why so many prominent right-wing figures on social media are obviously terrible people and/or deranged.

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The Meiji government translated 10,000 technical books (applied science, industry, etc). Then, Japan became an industrial powerhouse.’ I loved visiting Japan and long to go back.

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Meanwhile, Polish GDP per capita is forecasted to catch up with Japan within 2 years. Damn, why didn’t I invest in eastern Poland?

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The man behind Candid Camera was on a hijacked plane, which other passengers thought was some zany prank.

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American Midwest states are with random ‘Worlds Largest’ items Some good replies too.

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Top live-action films are increasingly desexualized. I wonder if views about sexual exploitation are just returning to their pre-1960s norm. I’ve long thought that, if Game of Thrones is still watched in decades to come, it will be edited of its sex scenes.

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Thirty years ago there weren’t any architectural firms specialising in Sacred Architecture. ‘Now they can’t keep up with demand.’

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‘US soldiers stationed in Papua New Guinea during WWII left behind comic books. One featuring the superhero, The Phantom, captured the imagination of a remote jungle tribe. They integrated the character into their mythology as a demi-god, and now paint him on their shields.’

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Astrologist predicted Kamala Harris’s 2024 run.

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‘Women are strongly biased in favor of female candidates for election, whereas men are slightly biased in favor of... female candidates.’

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An estimated 400,000 cats and dogs were massacred in Britain at the start of the war.

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Why didn’t Rome industrialise? Interesting thread.

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Visualisation of which countries produce the most nuclear energy. Watch those France and China numbers rise.

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‘Stereotype accuracy: the French are by far the most accepting of extramarital affairs.’

The French are truly a unique people. We are lucky to have them.

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Thanks for subscribing, and have a good week!