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Irena's avatar

This was an interesting read. I guess it's somewhat surprising how *unsuccessful* assassination attempts usually are. Right? You would think: the would-be assassin has a gun, the target is in clear sight, easy-peasy. Apparently not.

And some prominent figures, such as Alexander II of Russia (the tsar who freed the serfs), were in fact assassinated, but only after several failed attempts over the years. Same story for Pyotr Stolypin, Russian reformist prime minister. So, it would seem that there are two basic ways to get assassinated: very lax security (I guess that's what happened to those British MP's in recent decades), or a very large number of people wishing to assassinate the person until someone finally succeeds despite every possible measure being taken.

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Ed West's avatar

security around British MPs has recently ramped up quite a lot sadly, one of the main problems with political instability - beofre the Provisional IRA made it impossible, you could just walk into Downing Street.

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Ruairi's avatar

Shooting someone who is no immediate threat to do, is not something people do easily.

There is a reason why snipers work in pairs.

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Ed West's avatar

As a reader pointed out, it's actually six MPs murdered. Will edit

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Tom Daly's avatar

Having listened to The Rest is History on the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand last week, I was struck by the similarities between Trump's (would be) assassin and Gavrilo Princip - basically, in the sense that they were both complete losers. I think you can make a case that the same goes for most assassins!

https://ministryofhistory.substack.com/p/why-are-assassins-always-such-losers?r=18ssp4

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Ed West's avatar

yes I thought about that. both seemed to be very physically undeveloped

The JFK series similarly

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Gwindor's avatar

"Whether Trump becomes more popular after the events in Butler, Pennsylvania, we can’t be sure"

Yes, and all the opinion pieces recently about 'Trump just won the election' are ridiculous. Just like the predictions of a red wave in the mid-terms. As far as I can see, the opinion polls are still incredibly tight, there's over three months to go, and politics has never been more tribal and vibes-based. I'm no expert on US politics, but I just don't understand the pundits claiming it's a done deal - it looks very close to me, and I don't see the assassination attempt moving the dial much.

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Paul G S's avatar

Excellent post Ed, thank you. The "close shaves" referred to certainly remind us of the abiding draw of counterfactual history.

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Aidan Barrett's avatar

Pope John Paul III was also a target of the Bojinka Plot in 1995, a kind of super 9/11 before the more familiar version:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bojinka_plot

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Gnasher's avatar

A Turkish player at the recent Euro 2024 championship was banned for two games for making the sign of Mehmet Ali Agca’s Grey Wolves with his hand to fans celebrating their win over Austria. Silly boy, he’d scored twice and his team were knocked out next round without him.

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Ruairi's avatar

Mary Leigh threw a hatchet at Asquith -missing him Yet striking John Redmond, wounding him

There is also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jubilee_Plot

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Aidan Barrett's avatar

One fellow's conception of a reality where Fanny Kaplan doesn't miss: https://www.deviantart.com/rvbomally/art/The-Red-and-the-White-519933594

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John's avatar

Fascinating. Thank you.

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William H Amos's avatar

Surely when discussing 'History's most notorious failed assassinations' the mind of every Englishman needs must leap to the excrable memories of Sir Francis Throckmorton, Sir Anthony Babington and the arch conspirator Guy Fawkes?

When one reads back the prayers of thanksgiving offered after the Gunpowder Plot, and compares them with certain reactions to the failed assasination of Mr Trump, one sees how much of American political culture, and the public imagination there (for all its seeming modernity) is fixed in forms recognisable from early modern England.

"ALMIGHTY God, who hast in all ages shewed thy power and mercy in the miraculous and gracious deliverance of thy Church, and in the protection of righteous and religious Kings and states, professing thy holy and eternal truth, from the wicked conspiracies, and malicious practices of all the enemies thereof; We yield thee our unfeigned thanks and praise for the wonderful and mighty deliverance of our gracious Sovereign King James the First, the Queen, the Prince, and all the Royal Branches, with the Nobility, Clergy and Commons of England, then assembled in Parliament, by Popish treachery appointed as sheep to the slaughter, in a most barbarous and savage manner, beyond the examples of former ages. From this unnatural Conspiracy, not our merit, but thy mercy; not our foreſight, but thy providence delivered us: And therefore not unto us, O Lord, not unto us, but unto they Name be ascribed all honour and glory, in all Churches of the Saints, from generation to generation, through Jesus Christ our Lord.

Amen. "

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Ed West's avatar

5/11 was an inside job - wake up sheeple!

I cant remember if I wrote about this in a post but I went to a Guy Fawkes experience where the people had to vote on whether to inform on the conspirators, and it was just me and one other person who voted yes!

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William H Amos's avatar

Very telling.

But then perhaps you all lacked the believable real life prospect of being sentenced to partial hanging and subsequent disembowelment-while-living before having your entrails burned before your very eyes and your body chopped up into quarters - if the conspiracy didn't entirely succeed as planned.

No doubt that aspect of the 'experience' was lacking. It would serve to focus the mind somewhat.

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David Cockayne's avatar

Makes you weep though, eh?

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Aidan Barrett's avatar

I hadn't heard of the Teddy Roosevelt assassination attempt until now! I wonder if that's where the writers of Black adder the Third got the idea of a cigarette box saving his life!

Teddy Roosevelt dying in 1912 could have really altered history. There would have subsequently been a strong likelihood that the incumbent William Howard Taft would have won instead of Woodrow Wilson. In this reality, it is highly unlikely that a hard-core isolationist like Taft would have joined the First World War as well as any chosen successor in 1916. Subsequently, WWI may have dragged on for longer or even ended with a Central Powers victory!

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Ed West's avatar

Ha interesting. being saved by objects in the breast pocket does seem surprisingly common!

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DaveW's avatar

This may be why breast pockets even exist. After all, they're not particularly practical. (Apart from the instance in the Steve Jobs movie where he sees someone with a floppy disk in a breast pocket, and asks a factotum to get him a shirt with a breast pocket before he gives his demonstration.)

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Basil Chamberlain's avatar

The incumbent was William Howard Taft. Robert A. Taft, his son, was an Ohio senator and unsuccessful candidate for the Republican presidential nomination in 1940, 1944 and 1952.

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Aidan Barrett's avatar

I'll fix that.

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Aidan Barrett's avatar

Also, don't forget Arthur Bremer who attempted to assassinate Presidential Candidate George Wallace in 1972 just to become famous.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_Bremer

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Neil C's avatar

John Hinckley Jr now has a YouTube channel where he posts his songs. I didn't know about the Gerald Ford assassination attempts until they were mentioned on The Fifth Column podcast this weekend.

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Ed West's avatar

Wow!

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Aidan Barrett's avatar

"By the way, Vice President George H. W. Bush almost became president because his boss was shot by the son of his friend and campaign donor John Hinckley, Sr. Was that a conspiracy to elevate Bush? Eh, probably not…George H. W. Bush has a vast number of friends both because he was born high up the pyramid of position and because he has the kind of friend-gathering personality that helped propel him even higher. (Or at least that’s what they want you to think.)"

https://www.takimag.com/article/thats_what_they_want_you_to_think_steve_sailer/2/

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DaveW's avatar

And he's on Twitter. Apparently, he's against violence now (and quoting a victim of assassination, too).

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JonF311's avatar

There was failed attempt to kill Nsppleon with a bomb as he rode to the opera. Although there was solid proof the Royalists were behind it, he blamed the Jacobins and locked up a bunch of them as they were being g politically troublesome at the time.

Never let a good attempted assassination attempt go to waste.

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Tim in NZ (formerly Hoylake)'s avatar

Good article; especially I liked the history around Jordan; thought they and Syria were friends... would have liked more of your thoughts on Trump's attempt, insomuch as this was state sanctioned, as the evidence is piling up extraordinarily. How many of the other attempts were sanctioned by the nation state of which the target was a member? Latest tidbit; George Soros placed a huge bet through his company that DJT stock for his social media site would lose value (he shorted the stock big time) just one day before the event. Stinks to high heaven. And the head of secret service is a woman who used to work for Pepsi, and was appointed by Jill Biden. Swampy as can be.

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Ed West's avatar

that sounds a bit unlikely to me! sounds like the secret service did a pretty bad job but the competency crisis explains that.

if the Democrat establishment wanted to get rid of Trump literally any candidate apart from Biden or Harris could beat him, it seems to me.

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