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Robert Elliot's avatar

In cities at least I'm hoping that this also means that we no longer have half the width of every street taken up by parked cars. Instead they can all sit in (underground?) multi-storey car parks and be summoned at need.

There should be far fewer of them needed, too - at any given time what proportion of the cars in the UK are actually being used? And having them managed as fleets should unlock economies of scale as we all stop maintaining our own vehicles.

Brandon Hull's avatar

I’m as enthused as you are Ed, about the future of driverless, however a several points of clarification and observation on your piece:

1) Uber and Lyft each have logged billions of cumulative rides, whereas Waymo has about 20 million. Waymo has surpassed Lyft in annual rides in San Francisco but to date the ride sharing companies overall have market share that is many orders of magnitude greater than driverless.

2) Waymo operates still in a sort of ‘trial’ mode where thousands of live human operators are monitoring rides from remote operating centers. Remote operations represent a drag on operating margins and as long as they persist, Waymo will be unprofitable and therefore cannot scale beyond select pilot markets.

3) from the standpoint of the user, to a large degree uber & Lyft already offer a ‘self driving’ experience. Absent Waymo’s soothing music and the Jaguar upholstery (BTW Waymo must surely be keeping Jaguar alive?) I can do anything in the back seat of an uber that I can with Waymo. Well…

A major difference is the convenience of very long rides like you envision on your vacation to France but even then I predict algorithms will prevent you from taking a journey to a destination where the probability of find a return customer is low…

4) finally, it is worth mentioning that major differences exist between the technology approaches of Waymo and Tesla. If Tesla’s vast library of roadway video interpreted by AI proves a viable substitute for Waymo’s hardware intensive LIDAR system, driverless will take off (and Waymo will fail) If not, ubiquitous driverless is likely to remain a long way off..

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