The Great Madman Theory of History vindicated

Has Nigel Farage just ended his chance of victory?

If the last few months has seen a vindication of the Great Man Theory of History, in the form of Elon Musk and Donald Trump, it’s also lent support to the Great Madman Theory of History: many historical events are explained by people making inexplicably bad decisions which prove almost like a deus ex machina for opponents.

One obvious example is Hitler’s declaration of war on the United States. The Nazis would have probably ended up fighting them anyway, but it still made sense to hold off the inevitable. Yet as Ian Kershaw wrote in Fateful Choices, ‘it was madness all the same – part of the madness behind the entire German gamble for world power.’

In his final days in the bunker, Hitler read Thomas Carlyle’s biography of Frederick the Great and hoped that some miraculous change of government among his enemies might save him as it did his predecessor. Frederick was on the verge of defeat in the Seven Years’ War when the tsar died and was replaced by Peter III, who happened to be a great fan of the Prussian king; he would even recreate some of Frederick’s military victories with toy soldiers in his palace, and now concluded a peace treaty, in return for which he received a medal.

These freakish strokes of luck are as unsatisfactory an explanation in history as they are in fiction - but it does happen, and maybe it’s happening now. It could be that Trump’s determination to alienate every possible ally will come under this category, and that his reckless behaviour will cause a totally winnable war against Woke (TM) to be lost; already the Canadian Liberals, on course for a heavy defeat, have been saved by Trump’s intervention. I also wonder if Vladimir Putin, who knows far too much Russian history than is healthy, has thought about the Peter III parallels.

But even in humble little Britain we are seeing Great Madman Theory play out with the Reform Party’s implosion. Last month the populist Right party comprehensibly took the lead in every opinion poll, and it’s not inconceivable that they could come first in the next election and replace the Conservative Party. Although the Tories already had many problems, this dramatic shift was a direct result of the centre-Right destroying their brand with a recklessly open immigration policy and believing their own Brexit waffle about Global Britain.

Reform’s four remaining MPs. And yes it’s an obvious joke

Now, as was always likely to happen, Reform have imploded: popular MP Rupert Lowe has been suspended from the party a day after making criticisms of leader Nigel Farage (and curiously, after meeting Liz Truss).

Lowe has been the stand-out star of the party since they won five seats in July, and that is almost entirely due to Twitter. Compared to other Members of Parliament, he dominates the social media platform, and Lowe’s tweets - like this, this or this - have been incredibly effective in building a support base online. (And even if people think that Twitter is not real life, it is for journalists and policy-makers.) He actually earns quite a lot of money from social media engagement, a system which provides terrible incentives for our democracy, but there you go.

Not that he needs the money. Like Farage, Lowe went to a noted public school before going into the city and making lots of money (as well as chairman of Southampton Football Club). While Farage has a wheeler-dealer City boy trader feel to him, Lowe is more obviously posh-coded, including a name which is so associated with the upper class as to be the generic term British soldiers give their officers. But as with Farage, that background doesn’t deter voters as much as Labour would like when trying to portray right-wing populists as posh plutocrats who will sell Our NHS.

Lowe has become immensely popular with the Reform base because, in Parliament and on social media, he has been quite outspoken in calling for the removal of all illegal immigrants, and for identifying the anti-white discrimination and animus often built into the system. This puts him at odds with Farage who, despite leading a populist-right party, is not especially hardline on immigration or multiculturalism generally. He has said that the demographic decline of the white British is ‘not a concern of mine’ and that large scale deportations are ‘literally impossible to do’.

Farage and his party chairman Zia Yusuf clearly do not share Lowe’s views on immigration, but they are also jealous of his popularity. Lowe made some criticisms of Farage to the media on Thursday and the very next day he was suspended following various ‘allegations’ about his behaviour. While we should wait to see the evidence, at first light it does all seems to rather vindicates his critique.

Lowe has responded firmly to the allegations, and replied to the party’s announcement (which they hid). calling it a ‘malicious attempt to drag my name through the mud’. He’s still got the Twitter banter as well.

It’s quite impressive for a party with five MPs to split, but then fringe movements always have this problem. There is also something comical about Lee Anderson signing himself ‘chief whip’ for a party with five MPs.

Shared on Twitter. I have no idea who to credit

‘Infighting’ in the case of Faragist parties can be sometimes literal. Two MEPs from Reform’s predecessor, Ukip, even came to blows in the European Parliament, with the aptly-named Mike Hookem knocking out Steven Woolfe; the image had a horrific cinematic quality, and it wasn’t immediately apparent that the affable Woolfe had survived.